E-Cigarette Use and Longitudinal Changes in Cigarette Smoking and Health
This project, entitled ?E-Cigarette Use and Longitudinal Changes in Cigarette Smoking and Health? proposes to use three waves of nationally representative survey data to examine the longitudinal relationships among e-cigarette use, traditional cigarette smoking, other tobacco use, other substance use behaviors and health problems from adolescence to young adulthood. E-cigarette use has increased significantly between 2011 and 2014 among U.S. middle and high school students and has surpassed the current use of traditional cigarette smoking among adolescents. In 2014, more than one in every six U.S. high school seniors has used e-cigarettes in the past month. Traditional cigarette smoking is most prevalent among young adults following high school (ages 18-24) relative to all other age groups. Tobacco use remains the leading preventable cause of death, and traditional cigarette smoking is responsible for more than 480,000 deaths per year in the U.S. This raises important public health questions regarding the long-term effects of e-cigarette use that have not benefited from adequate attention in the literature: 1) Does e-cigarette use change the risk for subsequent traditional cigarette smoking, other tobacco use, and other substance use behaviors? 2) Are traditional
cigarette smokers more likely to quit smoking after initiating e-cigarette use? To date, the long-term patterns and consequences associated with e-cigarette use in nationally representative samples of adolescents have not been studied. To address these gaps in knowledge, we will conduct a secondary analysis of data from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study, a multi-cohort epidemiological survey of a sample of approximately 142,500 students enrolled in U.S. private/public secondary schools (8th, 10th and 12th grades).
The MTF longitudinal panel sample features approximately 7,200 high school seniors (modal age: 18 years) who were followed 1-2 years (modal ages: 19-20 years) and 3-4 years (modal ages: 21-22 years) after high school, resulting in three waves of Longitudinal data. Several new questions were recently added to the 2014 MTF study to assess e-cigarette use. As a result, the MTF is the only national longitudinal study that has sufficient measures and sample size to test for potential gender, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status differences in e-cigarette use and its consequences. Our study aims to: (1) estimate the bias in estimated rates of e-cigarette use and traditional cigarette smoking in adolescence and young adulthood and estimated rates of change over time in e-cigarette use and traditional cigarette smoking due to differential attrition in the MTF
study, by comparing and evaluating alternative weighting and imputation approaches; (2) examine the trajectories of e-cigarette use, traditional cigarette smoking, other tobacco use, other substance use behaviors, and other health problems from adolescence to young adulthood as a function of e-cigarette use during early adolescence; and (3) assess the effects of age of onset and frequency of e-cigarette use on the trajectories of
traditional cigarette smoking, other tobacco use, other substance use behaviors, and other health problems.
National Cancer Institute
(1 R01 CA 203809 01)
Funding Period: 9/1/2016 to 8/31/2019